From the day Bernie Sanders declared his candidacy on April
30, 2015, we have heard repeated variations of: “I like what he stands for, but
I don’t think he can win.”
This seems to be offered as a rationale for choosing not to
vote or campaign for Sanders, but if you think about it hard, it makes no
sense.
Before we break it down, let’s remind ourselves of the end
game. If Hillary Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee this summer, most
current Sanders supporters will (or should) vote for her against anyone the
Republicans are likely to nominate.
We must, if for no other reason than to keep a reasonable
balance of justices on the Supreme Court bench. Plus, many foreign nations will
be accustomed to dealing with Clinton from her four-year tenure as Secretary of
State, which is another advantage. (Can you imagine Germany or Jordan or China
trying to conduct talks with Trump or Cruz with a straight face?) And “most”
Sanders supporters, if they don’t fall prey to disgust and choose not to vote at
all in November, should be enough to keep the GOP from winning the White House.
I seriously doubt Sanders will choose to run as a
third-party candidate in the fall if he doesn’t win the Democratic nomination. I
predict he’ll throw his support to Clinton. He knows the stakes as well as
anybody, and I don’t think he would risk playing the kind of spoiler Ralph
Nader did in 2000, which may have put George W. Bush in the White House. (The
surprising news in the wake of that debacle is how much effort Karl Rove and
the Koch brothers put into encouraging Nader’s campaign in order to hurt Al
Gore.)